In the ‘Year Ahead 2026’ UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office has outlined what investors can expect in the new year.
AI-driven innovation has powered markets higher in 2025, with just the information technology sector alone now accounting for 28% of the MSCI AC World index. Powerful trends in capital expenditure and accelerating adoption are likely to drive further growth for AI-linked stocks.
Additionally, the economic backdrop in 2026 should support equities more broadly, with growth accelerating in the second half of the year. In the US, growth is expected at 1.7%, backed by more favourable financial conditions and accommodative fiscal policies. Eurozone GDP is forecast to grow at 1.1%, while APAC’s economic growth should reach the 5% range.
With these developments in mind the report highlights the following key investment views for the year ahead:
- Invest in transformational innovation: AI and technology have been key drivers of global equity markets and should fuel further gains in 2026. While being mindful of bubble risks, allocating up to 30% of a diversified equity portfolio to structural trends including AI, longevity, as well as power and resources, is recommended.
- Add to equities: Supportive economic conditions should underpin global equities, which are expected to rise by around 15% by the end of 2026. Solid US growth and accommodative fiscal and monetary policy favour technology, utilities, health care, and banking, with gains likely in the US, China, Japan, and Europe.
- Seek opportunities in China: China’s tech sector stands out as a top global opportunity. Strong liquidity, retail flows, and earnings expected to rise to 37% in 2026, should sustain momentum for Chinese equities. Broader Asian exposure, in particular to India and Singapore, could provide additional benefits for investors seeking diversification, as could emerging markets.
- Favour commodities: Supply constraints, rising demand, geopolitical risks, and long-term trends like the global energy transition should support commodities. Within this asset class, particular opportunities exist in copper, aluminium, and agricultural commodities, while gold serves as a valuable diversifier.
- Seek diversified income: Income-seeking investors should diversify, by blending quality bonds and higher yielding strategies with income-generating equities and structured investments. This should help generate yield and manage risks associated with tight credit spreads and market uncertainties.
- Currency strategy matters: The euro, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone are preferred over the US dollar, as anticipated US rate cuts may put pressure on the greenback. Financial repression could contribute to increased currency volatility in the future, and high-yielding currencies are poised to benefit as risk appetite broadens in FX markets over the next year.
Tobias Werhli (pictured), Country Head Jersey, at UBS Global Wealth Management, commented: “Our Year Ahead 2026 report points to a year of renewed momentum, driven by AI, tech, and healthcare innovation, resilient global growth, and favourable conditions for many assets. These forces could well provide markets with the escape velocity to move beyond structural challenges like rising global debt, ageing populations and deglobalisation to prosper.
“For entrepreneurs, business owners, and wealth holders in the Channel Islands, this outlook presents clear opportunities. However, persistent inflation, rising geopolitical tension, and complex debt dynamics may contribute to further market volatility, underscoring the value of investors thinking long-term and cultivating diversified portfolios.
“As established centres for family and cross-border wealth, the Channel Islands are closely attuned to many of the macro themes explored in this report. Our guidance is consistent: focusing on diversification, long-term strategy, and aligning portfolios with goals such as liquidity, longevity, and legacy – particularly in light of the Great Wealth Transfer – is key to building resilient, future-ready wealth plans.”
“As UBS continues to grow its regional reach, we’re supporting clients to balance portfolios, manage risk, and plan effectively ahead of expected macro shifts.”
