The Guernsey Residential Property Prices Bulletin has been published for Quarter 2 of 2025.
The Guernsey Residential Property Prices bulletin measures average price changes in residential properties purchased and advertised as being available to rent on the island each quarter and provides a headline analysis of trend prices.
The mix adjusted average purchase price for local market properties transacted during the second quarter of 2025 was £596,573, 2.8% higher than the previous quarter and 1.5% higher than the second quarter of 2024. The four quarter average was 29.7% higher than five years previously.
The four quarter rolling average time between a Local Market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale was 259 days for properties purchased in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 202 days in the second quarter of 2024 and 241 days in the second quarter of 2020.
The difference between the maximum advertised prices compared with the final sale prices of Local Market properties was calculated: the final sale price was, on average, 7.3% lower than the maximum advertised price in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 8.9% a year previously and 6.4% in the second quarter of 2020.
3.1% of Local Market purchases during the second quarter of 2025 had been built in the previous twelve months. This compares to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024 and 5.0% in the second quarter of 2020.
The raw median price (realty only) of the 12 Open Market transactions in the second quarter of 2025 was £1,569,750, compared with £1,803,750 in the second quarter of 2024. In the second quarter of 2020 the median was £1,520,719.
The mix adjusted average rental price for Local Market properties was £2,075 per calendar month in the second quarter of 2025, 0.3% higher than the previous quarter, 5.3% higher than the second quarter of 2024 and 50.8% higher than five years previously
Nick Paluch (pictured), director in the residential sales team at Savills Guernsey, said: “The markets have been a little up and down of late but there’s certainly signs of resilience, with a slight increase in transaction volumes.
“Prices in the Local Market appear to have recovered from the start of the year and lower interest rates have helped generate more activity. It is worth noting however that the price increase is still less than RPI, but it is at least a positive step.
“The Open Market has perhaps not been as busy as we would have expected – particularly in light of changes to inheritance and capital gains tax in the UK.
“The Autumn Budget will be important in determining how the rest of the year pans out. Future cuts to interest rates and possibilities of relaxed mortgage criteria should ease some concerns and market sentiment could well look more promising – but fears about US trading policy and global conflicts also have the potential to knock confidence.
“Consequently, both the Local and Open Markets are likely to be finely balanced as we head into September and beyond. Sensible pricing will remain crucial for securing a sale, while a degree of compromise will also be needed from both buyers and sellers.”
Richard Hemans, IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, commented: “Guernsey’s local market property prices rose again in Q2 2025, with the mix-adjusted average now standing at £596,573 — up 2.8% on the quarter and 1.5% higher than this time last year. However, underlying prices remain weak, with the four-quarter rolling average down by 2%, only a slight improvement from the 3% decline reported in Q1 2025. Jersey’s housing market is even more subdued, with its rolling four-quarter House Price Index down by 6% compared to Q2 2024. In real terms, prices are likely declining faster than these headline figures suggest, given that inflation remains elevated.
“However, this softness in prices is translating into strength in market activity in both islands. There have been 714 local market transactions in Guernsey over the last 12 months, representing a year-on-year increase of 36%. If anything, activity is accelerating, as growth was 19% in Q1 2025. Jersey saw year-on-year growth of 24%. These rising transaction volumes alongside modest price falls suggest increased liquidity and a market that is still normalising post-pandemic.
“Guernsey’s open market remains very robust, with both prices and volumes growing strongly. Open market prices rose by 16% on a rolling four-quarter average basis, while the number of transactions increased by 50%. Guernsey is clearly maintaining its appeal as a destination for high-net-worth individuals, likely driven by its stability, quality of life, and tax environment.
“Rental costs continue to climb. Guernsey’s mix-adjusted average rent rose to £2,075 per month, up 7% on a four-quarter rolling basis. Rental costs remain painful, consuming a significant proportion of average earnings, and stand in stark contrast to Jersey, where rents have fallen 0.5% year-on-year. Rents are likely rising faster than wages in Guernsey, pushing housing costs further out of reach for many and contributing to the island’s persistently high inflation rate. Housing unaffordability may increasingly restrict labour mobility and act as a brake on productivity and economic growth.
“On affordability, Guernsey’s median loan-to-value (LTV) ratio sat at 79%, higher than Jersey’s median of 73%. This reflects the need to borrow more in Guernsey to purchase a home, indicating that homebuyers may be more indebted and have less equity in their property. It may also reflect reduced household savings buffers, as renters struggle to accumulate deposits amid persistently high rental costs. However, this figure does not tell us about the affordability or risk profile of those loans, since this data has not been updated since Q2 2024.
“Supply remains tight. Over the past 12 months, Guernsey’s housing stock increased by just 88 units, with a net gain of only 17 in Q2, falling far short of the annual target of 310. While population growth and net inward migration have previously been cited as major contributors to housing demand, recent government analysis suggests that these figures may have been overstated due to under-reported outward migration. Revised statistics are expected to reduce the total population estimate by up to 3%. Even so, rents and prices continue to rise, suggesting that supply constraints remain the dominant force behind affordability pressures.
“Looking ahead, easing interest rates may improve access for committed buyers. Yet without accelerated planning reform, expanded housing committee action and the rapid scaling of supply, especially affordable and social units, price pressures and rental inflation will remain structurally entrenched. While Jersey’s housing market also remains relatively unaffordable, falling prices to buy and to rent suggest that a stronger supply response may be helping to ease pressure. Guernsey’s experience also underlines the need for accurate and timely population data to inform housing policy and build public trust.’
