Guernsey housing market activity slows as prices continue to rise

In total there were 124 Local Market transactions completed during Q1 of this year, down from the 208 transactions recorded in the first three months of 2022. Of those 124 transactions, 97 were Local Market house sales with a median price (realty only) of £619,125, compared to £643,500 for the same period in 2022. The median price (realty only) of the 27 Local Market flats sold in the last quarter was £382,688, an increase on the £326,625 recorded in Q1 of 2022.

Similarly, in the Guernsey Open Market, just 14 sales have been recorded so far this year, compared to 27 for the same period in 2022. Of these 14 sales, the median price (realty only) for the 11 Open Market houses sold was £2,437,500, up from the £1,160,250 recorded in 2022. The three Open Market flats sold so far this year attracted a median price of £897,000, lower than the £1,371,345 achieved in 2022 (from just one Local Market flat sale).

The increases in Local Market median house and flat sale prices from Q1 2021 to Q1 2023 were £60,937 and £104,810 respectively.

Jason Morgan (pictured), head of Carey Olsen’s property group in Guernsey, said: “The end of 2022 was a particularly busy time for Guernsey’s housing market, most notably on the Open Market where Q4 sales were at their second highest level since 2000. As is often the case in the early part of the year, there has been significantly less market activity for the first quarter of 2023. Although, a noticeable increase in properties being advertised for sale on the Local Market bodes well for an improvement in market activity in that sector in the months ahead.

Whilst Open Market transactions were significantly down for the first three months of 2023, as compared to the same period in 2022, such reduction has to some extent been mitigated by a rise in median house prices for the same period, of more than £1 million.”

Carey Olsen has one of the largest property law teams in the Channel Islands and advises private individuals, developers, investors and businesses on buying, developing, financing, selling and leasing property.

Stuart Leslie, head of residential sales at Savills Guernsey, added: “It always takes a while for the housing market to warm up at the start of the year, but clearly there is a little more caution than normal. Historically Guernsey has been somewhat insulated from any wider political or financial uncertainty – but it is not wholly immune from outside pressures.

“The rise in the cost of living and increased mortgage rates has meant that buyers have had to reduce their budgets accordingly, while vendors  who haven’t needed to sell immediately have decided to sit tight until the spring. It’s also important to put the activity of the last few months into context – it’s coming off the back of a very busy two or three year period, both in terms of the number of transactions and price rises, which was always going to be impossible to sustain.

“Activity is currently more needs based than it was previously – people having to relocate for work or family reasons for example. And – while demand is stronger than we anticipated – buyers do not feel the same urgency that they felt last year or the year before, and are happy to bide their time to find the right home at the right price. Consequently, realistic pricing is key to maintaining market momentum.

“We do expect things to start picking up as we head into the rest of April, May and June. Demand remains robust and we’re not forecasting a substantial drop in house prices. The lifestyle on offer in Guernsey remains a significant draw for the open market – and there continues to be a core number of committed buyers who are willing to make a move regardless of the market conditions on the local market. Long term we still think Guernsey will outperform the UK prime market over the next five years.”