There has been a 28% reduction in Jersey births in a decade due to smaller families and emigration.
A recent report by The Policy Centre considers the reasons and ramifications of the Island’s falling birth rate.
Following recent news that Jersey has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, the Annual Statement of the Superintendent Registrar shows a dramatic reduction in the number of registered births in recent years.
The 2025 report reveals that:
- 716 babies were born in Jersey in 2024 – the lowest number of births recorded since 1945.
- This figure is 10% less than 2023 and 36% less than 2012.
- By comparison, births in England and Wales increased by 1% in 2024.
- Early figures for 2025 show a further decrease in birth rate, with a 4% reduction year-on-year in the first 6 months.
- The number of registered deaths in 2024 was 877 therefore the population shrank by 162.
This lowering of birth rate is predicted to result in a 20% fall in primary school-aged children by 2028 and could have a significant implication on the Jersey school structure given the subsequent knock-on effect on secondary school roll calls.
- In the two years to Spring 2025 the number of primary school pupils fell by 5.6% with four schools recording declines in excess of 10%.
- Jersey currently has 7,441 children enrolled in primary schools, down from a peak of 8,054 in 2021, a number reflected by the high number of births between 2011 and 2016. This number is predicted to fall to around 6,500 in 2028.
Until 2021 births in Jersey always exceeded deaths. This has since been reversed with deaths exceeding births by 39, 40 and 161 in the last three years. With the figure of 123 in the first half alone, it is likely that the figure for 2025 as a whole will be over 200.
Reflecting on the report, The Policy Centre’s Senior Adviser Sir Mark Boleat said: “Any decline in the birthrate is caused by one, or both, of two things: a fall in the number of births, and emigration and immigration of young people. While the recent cost of living report goes some way to explain why some people may choose to have smaller families, it is also likely that the sharp decline in births in 2024 is partly explained by the migration issue.
“The latest population projections, published in 2023, show an ever-increasing ageing Island community and this naturally brings with it a reduction in birthrate. Combine this with a number of younger islanders choosing to move away and we have an issue that is going to need to be addressed sooner rather than later.”
