The Guernsey Residential Property Prices Bulletin has been published for the first quarter of 2024.
The mix adjusted average purchase price for the Local Market properties transacted during the first quarter of 2024 was £599,745; 1.6% lower than the previous quarter and 2.3% lower than the first quarter of 2023 but 45.1% higher than five years previously.
There were 93 Local Market transactions during the first quarter of 2024, 57 fewer than the previous quarter, and 20 fewer than the first quarter of 2023. This is the lowest number of transactions in any quarter since these figures were first recorded, in 1999.
The four quarter rolling average time between a Local Market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale was 181 days for properties purchased in the first quarter of 2024.
The difference between the maximum advertised prices compared with the final sale prices of Local Market properties increased this quarter. The final sale price was, on average, 8.8% lower than the maximum advertised price in the first quarter of 2024, compared with 6.7% a year previously and 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019.
5.4% of Local Market purchases during the first quarter of 2024 had been built in the previous twelve months. This compares to 4.4% in the first quarter of 2023.
The raw median price (realty only) of the 18 Open Market transactions in the first quarter of 2024 was £1,462,500, compared with £1,779,375 in the first quarter of 2023.
The mix adjusted average rental price for Local Market properties was £1,911 per calendar month in the first quarter of 2024; 0.5% lower than the previous quarter but 7.5% higher than the first quarter of 2023 and 43.9% higher than five years previously.
Stuart Leslie, head of residential sales at Savills Guernsey, said: “The housing market took a little longer to get going this year and the latest figures show some of the hangover from 2023 – with the rise in the cost of living and increase in mortgage rates still having an effect. However, after what feels like a long winter, we’re now beginning to see things warm up as we enter what is traditionally the most popular time of year to buy and sell a home. The markets are still relatively price sensitive – and finance remains a key consideration – but greater stability in lending costs alongside a slightly improved economic outlook seems to have encouraged a greater degree of activity.
“Buyer commitment has improved, budgets are slowly showing signs of picking up and buyer registrations are ahead of where we expected. The more optimistic outlook has prompted Savills to upgrade its forecasts for UK house prices, which are now expected to grow 2.5% in 2024. The markets here in Guernsey are obviously very different – but as confidence grows across the English Channel that may well translate to greater activity over here as well. It will, of course, take time for renewed confidence to translate into completed deals – so we may not see that reflected in the figures until the end of quarter two or quarter three – but the Guernsey housing market relies heavily on mortgage lending, so the predicted softening of those rates may well lead to some green shoots of growth.”
Lettings Manager Annie Le Prevost (pictured) said: “Much like residential sales, the lettings market has shown recent signs of picking up for summer. The year started out strong, with a slight lull in March/April – perhaps triggered by the Easter Bank Holiday and people taking extended breaks. That being said, demand remains incredibly high – driven by a continued lack of stock, while prices now appear to be relatively stable, and not decreasing to any great extent, especially since the start of the year. Of the properties that are available, there is a good mix, ranging from one and two-bedroom apartments to three and four-bedroom family homes. This is always a good sign and hopefully bodes well for the months ahead. With interest rates coming down slightly, it may also encourage first-time buyers in rented accommodation to take a step onto the property ladder, which could well free up rental properties at the lower end of the market.”
