The Institute of Directors Guernsey’s latest Directors’ Economic Confidence Survey shows that Guernsey continues to lead against comparable jurisdictions, reflecting a stronger outlook than many similar economies.
It also reports little change in confidence in the island’s economic prospects for the next 12 months, with a net reading of –12% compared to –11% in May 2025.
Confidence locally remains significantly higher than in the UK (–73%) and above the most recent figure from Jersey (–34%), indicating that Guernsey is well placed to build on this with the support of a focused pro-growth agenda.
Respondents also remain notably more optimistic about their own organisations than about the wider economy. Organisational confidence stands at +40%, unchanged since May but reflecting a modest downward trend from +47% when the survey was first introduced in 2024.
Whilst some indicators softened, there were signs of resilience across key business metrics. Expectations for revenue, profit and investment have all improved, although business leaders continue to anticipate higher costs and expect headcount growth to slow in the year ahead.
The survey also reveals meaningful shifts in the challenges facing local businesses. Air and sea links have returned to the top of the list of concerns*, identified by nearly half of respondents, although this has gradually declined since the survey began. Housing costs and availability have risen sharply as a priority issue, moving from fifth place to joint second, alongside the cost and availability of labour, which remains a persistent constraint on growth.
Uncertainty over tax reform has also climbed the agenda following ongoing debate about how to address Guernsey’s fiscal deficit.
Alongside headline sentiment, this Pulse Survey explored political and economic priorities. Respondents sent a clear message to the States of Guernsey, with calls to prioritise spending restraint, plans for economic growth, a review of public services and closer working with Jersey before introducing or increasing taxes. Where taxation is required, GST is the preferred mechanism, ahead of corporate or income tax.
Qualitative responses highlight concerns about Guernsey’s competitiveness, infrastructure and fiscal sustainability. Many respondents expressed deep frustration with the fragility of air connectivity, rising business costs and limited housing supply, alongside calls for a coherent pro-growth strategy.
Richard Hemans (pictured), Economic Lead for the IoD Guernsey Branch, said: “This latest survey shows that whilst confidence in Guernsey’s economy remains below desired levels, directors are becoming increasingly optimistic about investment, revenue and profit prospects. However, they continue to face significant structural challenges, particularly around connectivity, labour and housing.
“The comparative strength of Guernsey’s confidence levels against the UK and Jersey demonstrates the underlying resilience of our business community but also highlights the importance of maintaining our competitiveness.”
