The Guernsey Residential Property Prices Bulletin has been published for Quarter 3 of 2025.
The Guernsey Residential Property Prices Bulletin measures average price changes in residential properties purchased and advertised as being available to rent on the island each quarter and provides a headline analysis of trends in average prices.
The mix adjusted average purchase price for the Local Market properties transacted during the third quarter of 2025 was £592,584, 0.7% lower than the previous quarter and 2.8% lower than the third quarter of 2024. The four quarter average was 27.3% higher than five years previously.
There were 209 Local Market transactions during the third quarter of 2025, which was 14 more than the previous quarter and 44 more than the third quarter of 2024. Five years previously, in the third quarter of 2020, there were 277 transactions.
The four quarter rolling average time between a Local Market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale was 265 days for properties purchased in the third quarter of 2025, compared with 221 days in the third quarter of 2024 and 186 days in the third quarter of 2020.
The difference between the maximum advertised prices compared with the final sale prices of Local Market properties was calculated: the final sale price was, on average, 7.3% lower than the maximum advertised price in the third quarter of 2025, compared with 7.2% a year previously and 5.4% in the third quarter of 2020.
3.8% of Local Market purchases during the third quarter of 2025 had been built in the previous twelve months. This compares to 0.6% in the third quarter of 2024 and 5.4% in the third quarter of 2020.
The raw median price (realty only) of the 22 Open Market transactions in the third quarter of 2025 was £1,852,500, compared with £1,958,288 in the third quarter of 2024. In the third quarter of 2020 the median was £1,222,250.
The mix adjusted average rental price for Local Market properties was £2,112 per calendar month in the third quarter of 2025, 1.8% higher than the previous quarter, 2.8% higher than the third quarter of 2024 and 53.5% higher than five years previously.
Stuart Leslie (pictured), head of residential sales at Savills Guernsey, said: “For most of this year the island’s property markets have been a little up and down and it’s been difficult to gauge what might happen from one month to the next. But we do now appear to be experiencing a greater degree of consistency.
“Sales activity improved in the three months to the end of September, while recent conveyancing figures show that October proved to be the busiest month of the year so far – with sales rising in both the Local and Open Markets.
“Much of the activity in the Local Market has been driven by properties priced between £600,000 and £1million – largely due to a softening in mortgage rates. This slight drop – coupled with an easing in house prices – has moved things along and enabled buyers to access the necessary lending and manage their costs more effectively.
“The Open Market figures are also encouraging. That’s perhaps not unusual – we often have Open Market applicants coming over in the summer, getting to know the island, and following up with sales that go through towards the end of the year.
“However, we do expect more activity following the UK’s Autumn Budget. We’re already seeing increased interest in anticipation of any possible tax changes – and it will be interesting to see if initial enquiries translate into sales.”
Richard Hemans, IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, commented: “Guernsey’s local market showed further signs of stability in Q3 2025, with the mix-adjusted average purchase price falling 0.7% in the quarter and 2.8% year-on-year to £592,584. However, it would be misleading to view the quarter in isolation. The four-quarter rolling average price declined by only 1.4%, compared with 2.2% in Q2 and 3.1% in Q1, indicating that prices are falling at a slower pace and that the market is stabilising after a prolonged correction.
“Liquidity has improved sharply. Local market transactions rose to 209 in the quarter, 44 more than a year ago, and the four-quarter total is now up 37% and at its highest level for three years. This demonstrates that the post-COVID slump in housing activity has ended. Although properties are taking longer to sell at an average of 265 days compared with 221 a year ago, and final sale prices were 7.3% below maximum advertised levels, the combination of moderating price falls and rising transactions suggests that confidence has returned to the market.
“The open market remains very strong. The median purchase price fell slightly year-on-year to £1.85 million, but on a four-quarter rolling basis prices rose by 5.2%, while transactions increased by 50%, their best performance in two years. This resilience underlines Guernsey’s continuing appeal to high-net-worth individuals attracted by the island’s stability, quality of life, and tax environment at a time of heightened political and economic uncertainty elsewhere.
“Rental prices continue to rise, but growth is easing. The mix-adjusted average rent increased by 1.8% in the quarter and 2.8% year-on-year to £2,112 per month, but the four-quarter rolling average shows rents up 5.5%, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter. The slowdown is therefore gradual rather than dramatic. Nonetheless, this easing in rental inflation will contribute to the wider moderation in Guernsey’s overall inflation rate. Rental costs have risen by more than 50% over the last five years and consume a painful 55% of average earnings, leaving many households under significant financial pressure.
“The yield on local market properties has improved as house prices have softened and rents have continued to rise. The average yield is now around 4.2%, the highest level for several years, making residential property a more attractive income-generating investment, particularly given the scarcity of supply. This combination of limited stock, steady demand and better yields should help support capital values even as prices adjust.
“The median loan-to-value ratio remains high at 79%, reflecting the extent to which buyers continue to rely on debt to access the housing market. With prices edging lower and earnings likely to have risen, affordability has improved modestly. Although earnings data have not been updated since Q3 2024, it is reasonable to estimate that the house-price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from 14.1 to around 13.2 times, the most affordable level for five years. Nonetheless, affordability remains stretched by any historical measure, and home ownership continues to be out of reach for many first-time buyers.
“Housing supply remains critically constrained. Only 15 net new units were added in the quarter and 85 over the past year, less than one-third of the annual target of 310. Without faster progress on planning reform, land availability and delivery of new affordable and key-worker homes, supply shortages will continue to underpin both prices and rents, restricting the island’s ability to attract and retain workers and acting as a brake on productivity and growth.
“Overall, Q3 2025 confirms that Guernsey’s housing market is gradually rebalancing. Prices are stabilising, liquidity is improving and rental inflation is easing, all of which suggest a more orderly environment. Yet the fundamental challenge of insufficient housing supply remains unresolved and continues to underpin affordability pressures. The next phase must focus on accelerating the delivery of new homes if this renewed market stability is to be sustained.”
